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Terrorism Prediction


 

Safe Until The 2004 Elections?

Prediction:
There will be no organized, well-planned terrorist attach on Americans within the boundaries if these United States until after the 2004 presidential elections or until it looks as if the Democrats cannot win the White House.

However, if the Democratic nominee appears willing to continue the war on terrorism (So far John Kerry could go either way.) or if President George W. Bush wins re-election, a well-planned, organized attack on Americans and on American soil will soon occur. Why? Because the terrorist will have nothing to lose by unifying this nation and its allies.

Disclaimer:
I don’t claim to be a terrorism expert or anything close. I am more like a Monday-morning quarterback calling plays with hindsight and guesswork.

I cannot rule out a lone terrorist attack, acting in isolation, in an attempt to buy salvation through suicide. I just don’t believe a well organized attack will happen because the terrorist planners must realize that a divided American is much better and less dangerous than a unified America.

My Reasoning:
Terrorist leaders understand the only way to win their war in Iraq or Afghanistan is for the American solders to pull out. If the terrorists were to attack Americans especially on American soil, it would most likely decrease Kerry’s chances of winning and almost certainly ensure President George W. Bush’s re-election.

While John Kerry is unpredictable because he has taken just about every stance on the war that is possible, his background indicates he would rather talk than fight and to the terrorists, Kerry is a better gamble than President George W. Bush.

Terrorist planners and leaders are not stupid. Most are aware of the world situation and follow the world news. News tells them how well they are succeeding and where best to apply pressure. They aren’t always right as I believe their attacks in Turkey and other middle-eastern countries will only serve to bring those countries closer to the U. S. and more dedicated to eliminating terrorism.

Terrorists make mistakes simply because they must attack to be noticed; they must attack to make the news; and they must attack to attract converts.

President G. W. Bush started this physical, overt war on terrorism; he is their number one enemy. Defeating President Bush in the 2004 election is very important to the terrorists if they are to have any chance of winning in Iraq or anywhere else. Their pre-election goal is to do their best to make the president look weak and to discourage the American people.

Terrorist believe killing a few solders here and there will wear down the resolve of the American voters but they surely understand that a massive killing of American civilians or solders on American soil would only serve to strengthen our resolve and unify a divided nation.

Wrap Up:
Should we decrease our security until then? NO! I may be wrong. I am assuming reasonably intelligent people plan and lead the various large-scale terrorist groups. Also, that lone, isolated terrorist seeking redemption may decide to act at any time. And, that terrorist may not even be an Islamic Fundamentalist but simply a very troubled person seeking his or her 15 minutes of prime-time news.

After Word
If the terrorists’ goal is to win in Iraq or Afghanistan, then the above prediction is valid. However, if terrorists are only using these two country’s to merely keep their idealism and their organization alive then all bets are off.

An increase in high-level terrorists traffic indicated terrorists were interested in accomplishing major attacks on the U. S. during the 2003 Christmas holidays. The effort wasn’t actually made or it may have been averted by our security precautions.

The recent terrorist attack is Spain is an indication that the terrorist groups are attempting to isolate the US for its allies.  If the people of Spain vote to remove their president who sided with president G. W. Bush, the war on terrorism will begin to narrow down to US against them and that may change if John Kerry win the presidency in November.

Terrorist organization with huge goals really can’t afford to win because the struggle and the effort are more important than actually accomplishing that stated goal. Winning spells their end because they can only survive so long as they have a cause for which to fight. Satisfy the cause and the terrorists become part of the very establishment against which they are rebelling. This is why the Palestine terrorists cannot allow peace with Israel to happen.

Terrorist leaders understand this and regardless of what ever we do, their fight will continue.

Peace is the terrorist’s death knell.


Author: Don Miller
Posted: Mar. 2004

 
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2004 Articles

2004 Articles Home

Socialism's Appeal
Socialism's Weakness
Campaign Ads
Bush Or Kerry?
Voter Fraud
On Tolerance
On Control
A Fractured Nation
Common Ground
Who Am I
On Marriage
Terrorism Prediction
On Faith
On Reasoning
On Empires
Which God?
Political Leadership
Politics Of Truth
Origin Of Speech
Gore And Dean
Chaos Or Ignorance
Terrorism I
Terrorism II
Terrorism III

2002

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2005

2006